To compensate for the limitation of the energy intensity indicator and to constrain energy consumption growth more directly and severely, China had decided to implement the Total Energy Consumption Control (TECC) policy during the 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This paper analyzes the situation of energy consumption in 3 scenarios based on the energy consumption trend during the 11th FYP, the energy intensity reduction target during the 12th FYP, and the TECC policy. The Energy Conservation Comprehensive Evaluation System (ECCES) which includes 5 indicators reflecting energy conservation responsibility and 3 indicators reflecting energy conservation difficulty has been built, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Entropy methods are used to determine the weights of 8 basic indicators. According to the ranking of comprehensive evaluation scores of ECCES, 30 provinces are divided into 5 clusters, which are assigned 3%, 3.5%, 4.2%, 5.5%, and 6.8% of controlled energy consumption growth rate, respectively. By comparing and analyzing energy consumption situations in 3 scenarios, we find that the TECC policy has the strongest constraint effect, and can achieve unification of provincial and national energy conservation goals. The provincial decomposition result of energy consumption controlled target of TECC policy roughly remains consistent with the current economic and energy development layout of China that the provinces in southeast coastal developed areas are assigned lower controlled energy consumption growth rate while the backward inland provinces are assigned higher growth rates.
This work was supported by project (2013CB036406-4) of the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Project 973); the key sponsored project (50539140 and 50679098) of the Natural Science Foundation of China; and the China Sustainable Energy Project of U.S. Energy Fund. The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their useful comments and suggestions.
I. INTRODUCTION II. ENERGY INTENSITY AND TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION CONTROL POLICY A. Energy intensity reduction policy 1. Contents 2. Measures and accomplishments 3. The target during the 12th FYP 4. Limitation of energy intensity reduction policy B. Total energy consumption control policy 1. Contents 2. Measures III. METHODOLOGY AND DATA A. Energy growth method B. Weight method 1. AHP method 2. Entropy method C. Evaluation and decomposition method D. Data source and processing IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS A. EC comparison in different scenarios B. Provincial decomposition of the TECC target V. CONCLUSIONS