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The impact of risk-averse operation on the likelihood of extreme events in a simple model of infrastructure

Chaos 19, 043107 (2009); doi:10.1063/1.3234238

Published 20 October 2009

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B. A. Carreras,1 D. E. Newman,2 Ian Dobson,3 and Matthew Zeidenberg4
1BACV Solutions, Inc., Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830, USA
2Department of Physics, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA
3Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
4Teachers College, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027, USA
A simple dynamic model of agent operation of an infrastructure system is presented. This system evolves over a long time scale by a daily increase in consumer demand that raises the overall load on the system and an engineering response to failures that involves upgrading of the components. The system is controlled by adjusting the upgrading rate of the components and the replacement time of the components. Two agents operate the system. Their behavior is characterized by their risk-averse and risk-taking attitudes while operating the system, their response to large events, and the effect of learning time on adapting to new conditions. A risk-averse operation causes a reduction in the frequency of failures and in the number of failures per unit time. However, risk aversion brings an increase in the probability of extreme events. ©2009 American Institute of Physics
History: Received 9 December 2008; accepted 29 August 2009; published 20 October 2009
Permalink: http://link.aip.org/link/?CHAOEH/19/043107/1
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KEYWORDS and PACS

Keywords
PACS
  • 89.75.Hc
    Networks and genealogical trees
  • 89.20.Ff
    Computer science and technology
  • YEAR: 2009

PUBLICATION DATA

ISSN:
1054-1500 (print)   1089-7682 (online)
Publisher:
AIP is a member of CrossRef AIP

REFERENCES (16)
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