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Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

Chaos 19, 043109 (2009); doi:10.1063/1.3230497

Published 27 October 2009

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Bruno Deremble, Fabio D'Andrea, and Michael Ghil
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Supérieure, 75231 Paris Cedex 05, France
In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model's fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple “weather regimes.” To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, “bred vectors” and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from “clouds” (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes. ©2009 American Institute of Physics
History: Received 9 March 2009; accepted 19 August 2009; published 27 October 2009
Permalink: http://link.aip.org/link/?CHAOEH/19/043109/1
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KEYWORDS and PACS

Keywords
PACS
  • 92.60.Wc
    Weather analysis and prediction
  • 05.45.-a
    Nonlinear dynamics and chaos
  • 92.60.Aa
    Modeling and model calibration in meteorology
  • YEAR: 2009

PUBLICATION DATA

ISSN:
1054-1500 (print)   1089-7682 (online)
Publisher:
AIP is a member of CrossRef AIP

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